Consumer Inflation Rose to 9% in September 2020: PBS


Pakistan’s consumer inflation increased to 9% in September from 8.20% in August 2020.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation of September 2020 increased by 1.54 percent over August 2020 and increased by 9.04 percent over the corresponding month of the last year as a result of an increase in food prices.

The price hike in almost all categories was more than the previous month. However, food showed the highest increase that strongly jacked up the overall inflation.

According to the data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) month on month basis, the top few commodities which contributed to inflation include tomatoes (44.07 percent), vegetables (30.33%), chicken (18.31%), onions (14.51%), potatoes (6.18%), eggs (5.2%), pulse gram (4.51%), pulse moong (3.46%), spices (3%), pulse mash (2.76%), pulse masoor (1.59%) and milk fresh (1.16%).

The following recorded a decrease in prices: fresh fruits (6.19%), sugar (1.82%), and gram whole (0.48%)

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the forecast for inflation has risen slightly, primarily due to recent supply-side shocks to food prices. SBP expects the average inflation to fall within the previously announced range of 7 – 9 percent during FY21, rather than marginally below.

CPI is the main gauge of price changes at the retail level of all goods and services consumed by private households and roughly reflects changes in the cost of living of entire Pakistan.

According to CPI basket, on average, each Pakistani spends 34.58 percent of their income on food and beverages, 23.63 percent on house rent, water, gas, electricity and fuel, 8.6% on clothing & footwear; 6.92% on hoteling, 5.91% on transportation, 4.1% on furnishing & household equipment maintenance, 3.79% on education, 2.7% on health, 2.21% on communication, but the least it spends 1.59% of its income spend on recreation & culture.

Food inflation in September 2020 stood at 14.74 % compared to 12.89% in the previous month. It was followed by clothing & footwear prices with an increase of 9.13 %, health charges 8.25%, hoteling 8.25%, furnishing & household equipment maintenance charges 7.89%, Charges of utilities (housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel) increased by 6.10%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco 5.86%, recreation & culture 3.93%, education 0.98%, and communication costs up by 0.29% over the corresponding month of last year.

However, transportation charges declined by 1.53 % over the corresponding month of last year.

Urban CPI inflation during September 2020 increased by 7.7% as compared to an increase of 7.1% in the previous month and 11.6% in September 2019. On month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.3% in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 0.8% in the previous month and an increase of 0.7% in September 2019.

Rural CPI inflation also increased by 11.1 % on year-on-year basis in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 9.9% in the previous month and 11.1% in September 2019. On month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.0% in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 0.4% in the previous month and an increase of 0.8% in September 2019.

During the month under review, core inflation (excluding food and energy costs) of urban CPI increased by 5.5 percent year on year basis as compared to increase of 5.6 percent in the previous month and 8.4 percent in September 2019. On month on month basis, it increased by 0.3% in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 0.7 % in the previous month and an increase of 0.4% in the corresponding month of last year.

Core inflation of rural CPI increased by 7.8% on (YoY) basis in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 7.6% in the previous month and 8.8% in September 2019. Whereas, on the month on month basis, it increased by 0.4% in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 0.8% in the previous month, and an increase of 0.3% in corresponding month of last year.

SPI that gauges essential kitchen items prices on weekly basis, increased by 12% year on year in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 11.7% a month earlier and an increase of 14.7% in August 2019. On MoM basis, it increased by 2.1% in September 2020 as compared to an increase of 0.9% a month earlier and an increase of 1.9% in July 2019.

Over the previous month, tomato’s price increased by 44%, vegetables 30.3%, chicken 18.3%, onions 14.5%, potatoes 6.2%, eggs 5.2%, pulse gram 4.5%, pulse moong 3.5%, spices 3%, pulse mash 2.76%, pulse masoor 1.59% and milk fresh 1.16%. Construction input items charges increased by 2.36%, Transport services 1.87%, medical tests 1.55%, and plastic products price increased by 0.78% over the previous month.

However, fresh fruits price down by 6.19 %, sugar 1.82%, gram whole 0.48%, liquefied hydrocarbons 1.51%, and electricity charges down by 0.62% over the previous month.



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